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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."