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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.